I probably don’t (and shouldn’t) need to be the one to point out that the concept of complex adaptive systems is increasingly lost on politicians, but I did do just that after Florida senator Rick Scott continued his saber rattling after (admittedly then undefeated) Florida State was left out of the recent College Football Playoff. Because after that happened, Senator Scott wrote a letter to the CFP committee in which, after throwing some shade at the committee (just five (38%) members have “relevant experience in coaching of playing football”), he demanded  “total transparency” with regards to how this decision was reached. 

Responding in due course, the committee, after throwing some shade at the senator (“Knowing how busy you are, thank you very much for taking the time to write about college football”), noted that Florida State was not as good now that its star quarterback was injured and would miss any CFP game.

This wasn’t good enough for Scott. “FSU football was #4 before beating #14 Louisville without Jordan Travis [the QB]...but then after that win, the Committee thinks FSU is a weaker team? It makes no sense,” he responded.

But it makes perfect sense. Complex adaptive systems are what it’s called when “the behavior of the ensemble may not be predictable according to the behavior of the components.” And they are what you need to take into account in any situation (business tie-in coming below) you need to be forward-, rather than backward-, looking.

In this case, yes, FSU did defeat Louisville, but the score was only 16-6, and Louisville had just lost 38-31 to Kentucky, a team that lost 49-21 to Alabama and 51-13 to Georgia (both teams also under consideration by the Committee). Further, Alabama had just edged Georgia 27-24, so if Kentucky was a little better than Louisville and Florida State a little better than Louisville, then Florida State (without its QB) was about as good as Kentucky. Based on the behavior of the other components in this system, Florida State (without its QB), despite winning, was now a lot worse than Alabama and Georgia. And since Alabama beat Georgia, it deserved the spot it was given.

But don’t take my word for that. Responding to my post before any of the games took place, venture capitalist and Santa Fe Institute trustee Bill Gurley pointed out that Vegas, the people who put capital at risk on things like this, had Florida State as a 14-point underdog in the game they did get awarded, which was the Orange Bowl against Georgia. Were Senator Scott correct about the injustice done to FSU by the Committee and FSU was, in fact, better than both Alabama and Georgia, then here was an opportunity to make a big profit betting the money line.

Of course, we all know what happened next. Florida State lost by a historically large 63-3 margin to Georgia in the Orange Bowl (acknowledging they had additional players not participate, but the point stands), while Alabama showed it more or less belonged in the CFP by taking #1 (and eventual national champion) Michigan to overtime.

The point is if the CFP Committee’s process were backward-looking, then undefeated Florida State deserved a spot. But the CFP Committee is explicitly forward-looking and they predicted, rightly as it turned out, that Alabama would provide better competition.

If you own or operate a business (and here’s a business tie-in), similar consideration should be given when deciding whether to give an employee a bonus or a raise. That’s because a bonus is a capped payout awarded for outstanding achievement in the past, while a raise is an uncapped payout for continued excellent performance in the future. Put this way, it may seem like it is always better to give and receive a raise than a bonus, but the thing about raises is that they increase performance expectations and if increased expectations are not met, that can cause a situation to turn sour quickly (whereas a bonus rewards good work but leaves expectations the same).

In this case,  the CFP committee essentially gave FSU a bonus and Alabama a raise. Not only did that turn out to be the right call, but given how FSU performed in the Orange Bowl, the last thing that team would have benefited from was higher expectations.

-Tim

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